GOP PROSPECTS - AT 9:22 A.M. ET:  As we look forward to the 2010 midterms - the most crucial in recent memory - we tend to forget that there are important elections this year as well.  And Republican prospects are improving:

Six months into his presidency, Mr. Obama's approval ratings have fallen from the 70s to the low 50s or less and the Democrats' once-muscular lead in the polls also has shrunk. Republicans are leading in this year's two governorship races, in Virginia and New Jersey, and analysts say they likely will capture several more governor's mansions next year.

"It would be hard to envision a political landscape as tilted against Republicans as it was in 2006 and 2008. There is now a body of polling data to suggest that the generic congressional ballot has closed. In the NBC/Wall Street Journal, Democrats have a seven-point advantage, the smallest it's been since April of 2006," said Jennifer Duffy, senior elections analyst at the Cook Political Report.

"That is all good news for Republicans," Ms. Duffy said.

COMMENT:  Yes it is, but a word of caution:  Improvement is not the same as victory.  The New Jersey situation is unique because the current governor, Democrat Jon Corzine, is so unpopular.  Virginia looks good, but is still fluid.

The article points out, looking ahead to 2010, that Democratic senators Chris Dodd of Connecticut, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, and Barbara Boxer of California, are in trouble.  True, but those are Democratic states, and any improvement in the economy would ease the party's woes.  I especially wouldn't count Boxer out.  Her probable Republican opponent, former Hewlett-Packard head Carly Fiorina, carries baggage from her management of HP, her golden parachute, and a not-always-engaging personality. 

The great prospect is Illinois, where Mark Kirk, a very attractive Republican congressman, will be facing...whoever...for Barack Obama's old Senate seat.  Given the nature of the Illinois Democratic Party, its candidate will probably come ready to run for office and plea bargain at the same time.

August 5, 2009